Economic Brief

For estimating underlying inflation, it is important to control for seasonality in volatility.

When all 2025 tariff measures are included, the total average effective tariff rate for 2025 reaches 22.2 percent.

Calculating the average effective tariff rate can help assess the impact of the proposed tariffs.

Months supply does better at predicting house price growth than many other relevant variables, such as the unemployment rate and the 10-year Treasury yield.

While valuation fluctuations successfully explain stock market dynamics, they appear insufficient as the sole driver of variation in firms' hiring decisions.

Several economic indicators appear to respond notably to shocks in credit sentiment.

The contributions of various sectors to aggregate productivity growth have shifted significantly since World War II.

A new indicator might be able to signal recessions faster and more accurately than the Sahm rule.

Prior to deregulation, banks were essentially confined to the borders of their home states.

Relying on only diffusion indexes without confidence intervals or polarization indexes may provide an incomplete picture.