

Rural Population Loss and Strategies for Recovery
Garrett County, in the western part of Maryland, is an example of a place that is trying to accomplish just that. The county established a scholarship program for all resident high school graduates to cover any remaining cost of tuition and fees at the local community college — Garrett College — after taking into account all other grants and scholarships. Since then, the program has been expanded to cover noncredit certificate programs and dual enrollment students. In West Virginia, the PROMISE Scholarship Program gives merit-based aid to residents of West Virginia who attend an in-state college or university. Whether at the county or state level, these types of scholarships can encourage young people to stay for their education and increase the likelihood that they will put down roots in the region.
What Does the Future Hold?
Early signs suggest that the population loss experienced in rural America over the 2010s has abated. A 2019 report by John Cromartie and Dennis Vilorio of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service showed the rural population decline that started in 2010 eventually turned around and ended with an increase of 33,000 people between 2016 and 2017, driven by a slight increase in migration from urban to rural communities. An improving economy helped some rural areas succeed in drawing in more people. But the problem of population loss will likely remain for many rural communities. Cromartie and Vilorio also noted that despite the gains some rural areas have made recently, many rural counties actually experienced declines in net migration. They were mostly in "low-density, remote areas in the Nation’s Heartland, in Appalachia from Eastern Kentucky to Maine, and in high-poverty areas in the Southeast and border areas of the Southwest."
While regional conditions vary, the strategies outlined above can help rural communities attract new residents. The economic forces incentivizing out-migration to urban areas will remain, but for reasons that are not fully understood, Americans are moving less frequently than they did historically. It remains to be seen if the trend toward staying in place will help stem the tide for many rural communities. Another potential factor at play is the expansion of broadband in rural areas. If access to broadband is made available to rural communities, opportunities for remote work and increased access to critical educational and health services may tip the scale in many peoples' minds to move to the country.
Our Related Research
"Understanding Geographic Inequality," Econ Focus, Fourth Quarter 2019
"In Tourism, Old Stories and New Opportunities," Econ Focus, Fourth Quarter 2019
"Community Colleges in the Fifth District: Who Attends, Who Pays?" Econ Focus, Fourth Quarter 2019
"The Young Adult Homeownership Gap: Evidence from Fifth District HMDA Data," Regional Matters, Nov. 7, 2019
"On Regional Borrowing, Default, and Migration," Working Paper No. 19-04, February 2019
"Rural Hospital Closures and the Fifth District," Econ Focus, First Quarter 2019
"Definitions Matter: The Rural-Urban Dichotomy," Econ Focus, Third Quarter 2018
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