Our Team
Toan Phan
Toan Phan is a senior economist in the Research Department. His research interests include understanding the effects of extreme weather and natural disasters on the macroeconomy and the financial system.
Phan joined the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in July 2017 after serving as an assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He earned his doctorate from Northwestern University in 2012 and his bachelor of science in mathematics from Bucknell University in 2006. He is from Hanoi, Vietnam.
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Academic Publications
Leveraging the Disagreement on Climate Change: Theory and EvidenceJournal of Political Economy, forthcomingPrevious Version: Working Paper, January 2023, No. 23-01RAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, forthcomingPrevious Version: Working Paper, August 2021, No. 21-14RNature Cities, 2024: 436–444Previous Version: Working Paper, November 2022, No. 22-09RIMF Economic Review, 2024Previous Version: Working Paper, February 2018, No. 18-03European Economic Review, Vol. 170, November 2024: 104866Previous Version: Working Paper, March 2023, No. 23-06Land Economics, Vol. 100, November 2024: 606-620Previous Version: Working Paper, September 2021, No. 21-15Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 25, December 2021: 2102-2127Previous Version: Working Paper, April 2018, No. 18-10American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 12, October 2020: 33–70Previous Version: Working Paper, February 2018, No. 18-05RAmerican Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, Vol. 11, July 2019Previous Version: Working Paper, March 2018, No. 18-07Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 51, March-April 2019: 313-368
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors.
Previous Version: Working Paper, March 2018, No. 18-09Journal of Economic Theory, Vol. 177, September 2018: 280-314Previous Version: Working Paper, April 2018, No. 18-11International Economic Review, Vol. 58, November 2017: 1303-1316Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 83, October 2017: 1-17Economics Letters, Vol. 151, February 2017: 66-70Journal of International Economics, Vol. 104, January 2017: 157-165Review of Economic Dynamics, Vol. 22, October 2016: 93-108Economic Theory, Vol. 61, February 2016: 241-271Nonlinearity, Vol. 23, October 2010: 2599-2622 -
Working Papers
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Bank Publications
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Blog Posts
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Other Work
"Chapter 19: Economics" (with S. Hsiang, et al) in Fifth National Climate Assessment, U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2023.
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Media Mentions
"How Banks Are Adapting to Changing Flood Risks," Speaking of the Economy, October 23, 2024.
"Adapting Sovereign Debt to Climate Change," Econ Focus, Third Quarter 2023.
"Local Impacts of Global Weather Risks," Speaking of the Economy, May 10, 2023.
"Climate Change and Financial Markets," Speaking of the Economy, July 20, 2022.
"Why Economists Care about Climate Change," Speaking of the Economy, November 18, 2020.