Understanding Immigration in the Fifth District: Where Did International Migrants Settle?

In 2022, the Census Bureau announced that international migration to the United States had returned to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, and recent estimates suggest immigration has surged to unprecedented levels. To understand how the flow of international migration changed in our region from the onset of the pandemic, we analyze recent census data that looks at population change and its components. During this period, population change and migration in the Fifth District differed from the national trend and varied across states. Even though this period includes the height of pandemic-related natural population change, migration was a larger driver of population change in most of our states.

About 20 percent of urban counties in the district saw international migration rates higher than the nation's. Although the net international migration rate was higher in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, driven by in-migration to the D.C. metro area, some rural places experienced notable international migration as well. What's more, many of the rural counties that experienced relatively high levels of international migration are college towns or rely on industries that tend to disproportionately employ immigrant workers.

Population Change in Most Fifth District States Looked Different From the Nation

Population growth varied across states in the Fifth District between 2020 and 2023¹. Both the District of Columbia and West Virginia lost more than 1 percent of their population over this period while Maryland's population growth remained flat. Meanwhile, South Carolina (5.1 percent) and North Carolina (3.9 percent) outpaced the population growth of the United States (1.1 percent). Virginia (1 percent) experienced moderate population growth that was close to the national trend.

The composition of this change looked different across geographies, too. One component of the total change is "natural" — the net change of all births and deaths of existing residents. Natural change contributed positively to population growth in North Carolina (0.2 percent), Virginia (0.5 percent), Maryland (0.6 percent), and the District of Columbia (1.2 percent), meaning these places experienced more births than deaths between 2020 and 2023. However, South Carolina (-0.4 percent) and West Virginia (-1.9 percent) experienced negative natural changes. But births and deaths have not been driving population change: Across most states, population change was largely driven by either domestic or international migration.

Migration Was a Leading Factor in Population Change for Most Fifth District States

Net domestic migration varied considerably across Fifth District states from 2020 to 2023. Domestic migration measures the number of people moving to a locality from somewhere else in the United States. If an area's domestic migration was negative, more residents left for another location in the United States than moved to the area. Domestic migration was a drag on population growth in the District of Columbia (-4.1 percent), Maryland (-1.7 percent), and Virginia (-0.4 percent). On the other hand, domestic migration aided population growth in West Virginia (0.3 percent), North Carolina (3 percent), and South Carolina (4.9 percent). Domestic migration was the largest contributing factor to total population change in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and the Carolinas. However, North Carolina and South Carolina experienced notable in-migration from across the nation.

Net international migration for a locality measures the difference between the number of immigrants (people entering the United States) and the number of emigrants (people leaving the United States). Despite all Fifth District states experiencing positive net international migration from 2020 to 2023, immigration's contribution to population change tended to be higher in states where net domestic migration was negative. West Virginia (0.2 percent), South Carolina (0.5 percent), and North Carolina (0.6 percent) experienced contributions to population growth from immigration at rates lower than the nation's (0.8 percent). Meanwhile, Virginia (1 percent), Maryland (1.1 percent), and the District of Columbia (1.9 percent) all experienced contributions to population growth above the national rate. The latter states' immigration growth was led by inflows to the Washington-Baltimore region as shown in the map below.

The International Migration Rate Was High in Urban Cores and for Some Rural Counties

Ninety percent of Fifth District counties experienced net positive international migration over the three-year period between 2020 to 2023. The largest increases compared to their pre-pandemic populations were in urban counties, with 19 percent exceeding the national rate. For example, Arlington County in Virginia saw 5,244 more people move into the county from outside of the United States — a 2.2 percent international migration rate compared to 0.8 percent for the United States. In the map below, dark brown indicates an urban county that experienced a higher international migration rate than the nation. Counties in and around the metro areas of Washington D.C., Charlotte, and Raleigh received large relative boosts to their population through immigration.

Strong immigration was not exclusive to urban areas. Six percent of rural and small-town counties experienced immigration at or above the national rate (darkest green counties), although many are adjacent to metropolitan counties. Here, we define "rural and small town" as any county not in a metro area or in a metro area with fewer than 250,000 people. (See this recent Regional Matters for more information.)

Rural Counties With Higher International Migration Rates Share Common Key Industries

Some of the Fifth District's rural and small-town areas with higher net international migration are home to universities, tourist destinations, and food production plants, which might explain some of the migration to those areas.

Rural counties with major universities were most likely to experience large influxes of international migrants from 2020-2023 such as Harrisonburg (James Madison University), Charlottesville/Albemarle County (University of Virginia), Montgomery County (Virginia Tech), and Monongalia County (West Virginia University). These relatively high rates of immigration are likely due to enrollment in degree programs or employment at the universities, which act as anchor institutions for their regions.

Other high-immigration rural counties include tourism and outdoor recreation hot spots such as Beaufort and Jasper counties in South Carolina's Lowcountry. Both counties also received high levels of net domestic migration. Beaufort County is home to Hilton Head Island, which is a major tourist destination on South Carolina's coast. Jasper County is situated on South Carolina's coast between Hilton Head Island and Savannah, Georgia. Twenty-one percent of employment in the Hilton Head Island-Bluffton metropolitan area (which consists of Beaufort and Jasper counties) is in leisure and hospitality compared to 12 percent of South Carolina as a whole.

Employment in meat production could also be a draw for immigrants to some rural counties in the Fifth District, as the industry tends to rely heavily on immigrant labor. Two rural Fifth District counties that experienced above average rates of international migration are Duplin County, North Carolina (home to Smithfield and Butterball), and Wicomico County, Maryland (home to Perdue Farms). In both of these counties, animal farming and meat processing plants are among the top employers.

Closing Thoughts

The recent influx of immigration into the Fifth District has played a large role in population growth in states adjoining the DMV (District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia), and immigrants have primarily settled in major metropolitan areas (Baltimore, District of Columbia, Charlotte, and Raleigh). However, many of the district's rural areas have also gained large shares of immigrants relative to their pre-pandemic populations through education or employment opportunities within education, tourism, or manufacturing. As natural population growth falls in the United States and labor demand remains above labor supply, understanding regional immigration trends can provide insight into where firms and industries are more or less likely to experience labor shortages. Indeed, regions with substantial international in-migration have seen labor shortages ease in key industries such as construction, leisure and hospitality, and education and healthcare.

Views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.