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real exchange rates in hard and soft sovereign defaults

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Article

China's flag with semitransparent line graph on top showing an upward economic trend.

Can China Avoid a Liquidity-Trap Recession? Some Unintended Consequences of Macroprudential Policies

Economic Brief

April 2024, No. 24-12

Some think such a trap for China is imminent, due to factors such as a surge in deposits, mounting deflationary pressures and high youth unemployment rates.

Russell Wong

Blog Post

Aerial shot of the Port of Baltimore filled with shipping containers at sunset.

The Port of Baltimore Will Bounce Back

Macro Minute

April 9, 2024

Temporary losses look to be severe after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and closure of the Port of Baltimore, but there are several reasons to be optimistic about recovery.

Adam Scavette
Regional Economist

Working Paper

Weathering the Storm: Supply Chains and Climate Risk

Working Paper Series

April 2024, No. 24-03

While supply chain diversification helps mitigate climate risk, it exacerbates the distributional effects of climate change by reducing wages in regions prone to more frequent shocks.

Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Working Paper

Sectoral Development Multipliers

Working Paper Series

March 2024, No. 24-02

We find that technology adoption greatly amplifies the multipliers' magnitudes, and it changes the ranking of priority sectors for industrial policy.

Francisco Buera and Nicholas Trachter

Article

Purple and blue abstract financial graph with layered trend lines and columns.

Stargazing: Estimating r* in Other Countries

Economic Brief

March 2024, No. 24-10

The pattern of r* paths for other countries seem more alike to each other than they are to the U.S.

Thomas A. Lubik, Brennan Merone and Nathan Robino

Article

Office with many IT workers sitting in front of computers.

Did U.S. Immigration Policy Influence India’s IT Boom?

Economic Brief

December 2023, No. 23-42

Had U.S. immigration been more restrictive, the IT sectors in both the U.S. and India might have been worse off.

Gaurav Khanna and Nicolas Morales

Podcast

Overhead shot of Earth with global connections highlghted

Economic Spillovers Across Borders

Speaking of the Economy

Nov. 15, 2023

Paul Ho talks about how countries are connected to each other through international trade and how these connections help spread economic shocks across the globe. Ho is an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Working Paper

Heterogeneous Districts, Interests, and Trade Policy

Working Paper Series

November 2023, No. 23-12

Our supply-side explanation for trade policy reveals district and industry-level patterns of winners and losers, central to understanding the political consequences of trade and the backlash against globalization.

Kishore Gawande, Pablo M. Pinto and Santiago Pinto

Conference

CORE Week branded image of a presenter talking about his paper to economists

CORE Week, featuring the Advances in Labor Macroeconomics Conference

June 20, 2023

News

Technology investment business leader perspective panel, featuring Nicole Thomas, Colin Connolly, and Andrew Young, moderated by Paula Tkac.

Bank Technology Conference Highlights Disruption, Innovation and the Economy

June 5, 2023

Richmond Fed Research Director Kartik Athreya shares takeaways from the annual Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference, co-hosted by the Richmond, Atlanta and Dallas Feds.

Article

Group of economists standing in circle and talking.

Networks, Innovation and Productivity: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

May 2023, No. 23-17

Researchers covered topics including digital advertising, R&D allocation, production networks, and knowledge creation and diffusion.

John Mullin and Matthew Wells

Working Paper

Climate Defaults and Financial Adaptation

Working Paper Series

March 2023, No. 23-06

We analyze the relationship between climate-related disasters and sovereign debt crises using a model with capital accumulation, sovereign default, and disaster risk.

Toan Phan and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

Sovereign Debt and Credit Default Swaps (Revised November 2023)

Working Paper Series

March 2023, No. 23-05R

How do credit default swaps (CDS) affect sovereign debt markets? Our baseline specification predicts trading frictions and an inability to short sell bonds significantly improves sovereign debt prices, but policies that restrict CDS trading have small effects.

Gaston Chaumont, Grey Gordon, Bruno Sultanum and Elliot Tobin

Article

Hidden Effects of Global Trade

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2023

Economic disturbances are not confined within the country where they originate; they propagate throughout that country's trading network as both its immediate trading partners and trading partners of trading partners react.

Aubrey George

Article

the word DEBT piled up on four stacks of coins

Policies for Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Economic Brief

February 2023, No. 23-04

Improving such restructurings have garnered additional attention as sovereign debt has increased significantly in the past couple of years.

Kushal Patel and Horacio Sapriza

Article

How Does Trade Impact the Way GDP Growth and Inflation Comove Across Countries?

Economic Brief

January 2023, No. 23-01

Seemingly small international trade linkages can lead to substantial spillovers across countries, helping explain global comovement in GDP growth and inflation across countries.

Paul Ho, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Working Paper

Supply Chain Resilience: Evidence from Indian Firms

Working Paper Series

December 2022, No. 22-11

In this paper, we use new data on daily firm-to-firm transactions from India, coupled with a large exogenous shock that disrupted supply chains to varying degrees.

Gaurav Khanna, Nicolas Morales and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Working Paper

Globe in the foreground and a ship in the background

Multilateral Comovement in a New Keynesian World: A Little Trade Goes a Long Way

Working Paper Series

November 2022, No. 22-10

We study how international linkages and nominal price rigidities jointly shape the dynamics of inflation and output across multiple large economies.

Paul Ho, Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte and Felipe F. Schwartzman

Article

London Calling: Is Turmoil in U.K. Debt Markets the Shape of Things to Come?

Macro Minute

November 8, 2022

In recent weeks, government debt and foreign exchange markets in the U.K. were roiled by a remarkable amount of volatility.

Thomas A. Lubik

Article

Trade, Specialization, Property Rights and Wealth Inequality: A Conference Recap

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-42

Tariffs, property rights and producing inputs versus buying them: These were among the topics discussed at our recent conference.

Tim Sablik

Blog Post

Appreciating Dollar Appreciation

Macro Minute

October 18, 2022

As central banks around the world tighten their monetary policies, the U.S. dollar has appreciated significantly compared to other currencies.

John O'Trakoun

Article

How Do Real Exchange Rates Vary in Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults?

Economic Brief

October 2022, No. 22-40

Hard (or large) sovereign defaults have been associated with larger negative economic responses than soft defaults.

Brandon Fuller, Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerrón-Quintana

Podcast

China's Regulation of Firms and Banks: Financial Stability or Control?

Speaking of the Economy

Oct. 5, 2022

Chang-Tai Hsieh and Tao Zha share their research on China's economy and financial system, and discuss the country's growth during the last decade as well as its recent regulation of private firms and banks. Hsieh teaches at the University of Chicago, while Zha works at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory University.

Article

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2022

Columbia University economist on inflation, capital controls, and finding research topics.

David A. Price

Article

Is Dollar Dominance in Doubt?

Econ Focus

Second Quarter 2022

The dollar has been the global currency of choice for nearly a century, but in light of recent U.S.-led financial sanctions, some wonder whether that status will endure.

Tim Sablik

Working Paper

Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings

Working Paper Series

June 2022, No. 22-06

The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global ﬁnancial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among academics and policymakers.

Maximiliano Dvorkin, Juan M. Sanchez, Horacio Sapriza and Emircan Yurdagul

Article

How Does Trade Policy Get Decided?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-11

Consumers who would benefit from lower tariffs on a good tend to matter more when setting trade policy than producers who want higher tariffs.

Santiago Pinto

Blog Post

Oil Is Not Well in the World

Macro Minute

March 22, 2022

Crude oil prices spiked following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, adding to the pricing pressures that were already affecting energy markets. Filling any supply gaps won't be easy.

John O'Trakoun

Article

What Is SWIFT, and Could Sanctions Impact the U.S. Dollar's Dominance?

Economic Brief

March 2022, No. 22-09

The recent removal of several Russian banks from SWIFT has sparked questions about unintended consequences.

Russell Wong

Article

Pinelopi Goldberg

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

Yale University economist on developing countries, measuring economies by satellite, and the learning crisis.

David A. Price

Article

Global Banks, Local Branches, and Faraway Crises

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2022

How do financial crises affecting banks in one part of the world ripple through the global economy?

Matthew Wells

Blog Post

Omicron Ominous Overseas

Macro Minute

December 28, 2021

The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant poses risks to next year's economic outlook, especially if a spike in cases leads to supply disruptions in China and higher prices for Chinese imports.

John O'Trakoun

Working Paper

Firm Heterogeneity and the Impact of Immigration: Evidence from German Establishments

Working Paper Series

December 2021, No. 21-16

We use a detailed establishment-level dataset from Germany to document a new dimension of ﬁrm heterogeneity: large ﬁrms spend a higher share of their wage bill on immigrants than small ﬁrms.

Agostina Brinatti and Nicolas Morales

Article

Genghis Khan, Trade Warrior

Econ Focus

Fourth Quarter 2021

His Pax Mongolica connected Europe and China, leading to exchanges of technology and culture.

John Mullin

Article

A Look Back at Financial Repression

Econ Focus

First Quarter 2021

The policies were gradually phased out in many advanced and emerging economies. Will they come back?

John Mullin

Article

one big big of money weighed against three smaller bags of money on a scale

Sovereign CDS Dealers as Market Stabilizers

Economic Brief

December 2020, No. 20-13

Economists at the Richmond Fed analyze the role of dealer-provided liquidity in sovereign credit default swap markets.

John Mullin and Bruno Sultanum

Article

Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances

Economic Brief

January 2020, No. 20-01

What caused the housing boom and bust of the early 2000s?

Daisuke Ikeda, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik

Article

Should We Worry about Trade Imbalances?

Economic Brief

October 2017, No. 17-10

Trade imbalances are a perennial concern for policymakers and the public. But what does it mean for a country to have a trade surplus or deficit?

Thomas A. Lubik and Tim Sablik

Article

Dani Rodrik

Econ Focus

Third Quarter 2014

Harvard University economist on risks of financial globalization in developing countries, the role of the nation-state, and local culture in economics

Aaron Steelman
Publications Director

Speech

Starting Early in Workforce Development

Nov. 5, 2013

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey M. Lacker discussed workforce development during his speech to Charlotte business leaders on Nov. 5.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Speech

Global Interdependence and Central Banking

Nov. 1, 2013

President Jeff Lacker addresses the Global Interdependence Center in Philadelphia, which named him its 2013 Global Citizen.

Jeffrey M. Lacker
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

Publication

TARGET2: Symptom, Not Cause, of Eurozone Woes

Economic Brief

August 2012, No. 12-08

In recent years, large positive and negative balances have arisen in TARGET2, the interbank settlement and payments system of the Eurozone. These balances show that the Deutsche Bundesbank, the central bank of Germany, has become a large net creditor to the European Central Bank (ECB).

Thomas A. Lubik and Karl Rhodes

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